Summary:
- Arthur Hayes has released a new forecast of a possible bottom for Bitcoin at between $25k to $27k and Ethereum at between $1,700 to $1,800.
- Mr. Hayes also questions whether the crypto markets have already factored in multiple interest rate hikes by the US Fed.
- He adds that the correlations between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Nasdaq broke down during the recent crypto market meltdown and could signal a possible bottom.
Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes has released a new blog post in which he muses on a possible bottom for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
According to his analysis, Arthur Hayes has forecasted that Bitcoin could bottom between $25,00 and $27,000. For an Ethereum bottom, Mr. Hayes sees the number two digital asset finding a floor at between $1,700 to $1,800.
Have the Crypto Markets Already Factored in Multiple Fed Interest Rate Hikes?
The Co-founder and former Bitmex CEO begins the informative blog post by questioning whether the crypto markets have already factored in future interest rate hikes by the US Fed. He said:
With this political backdrop, the resumption of the “everything bubble” is but a few quarters away. However, we are here now and must ask ourselves: is this the bottom of this current crypto bear market?
Has crypto bottomed and brought forward the price of multiple additional Fed hikes to the present? Should diamond-handed traders be stooping down to collect treasure?
Correlations Between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Nasdaq Broke Down During the Recent Crypto Market Meltdown
His initial basis of a possible bottom for Bitcoin and Ethereum at the values mentioned above is that both assets’ correlations to the Nasdaq broke down during the recent crypto market due to UST’s depegging. Hayes goes on to provide the following checklist of a possible bottom in the crypto markets.
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Bitcoin / Ether move increasingly in a less correlated fashion vs. the Nasdaq 100.
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The current price levels are very close to the previous cycle’s all-time highs.
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The mainstream financial media gloats about how stupid and greedy plebs were who attained short-lived wealth investing in crypto.
Assuming The LFG Sold its 80k Bitcoin, ‘To Puke Such an Amount is Quite a Feat.’
Hayes went on to explore the impact of the Luna Foundation Guard’s 80k Bitcoin sale’s role on the entire crypto markets. From his point of view, it is not entirely clear that the LFG sold the Bitcoin.
However, he assumes they did and concludes that such a sale was a significant feat that provides more evidence of a possible bottom for Bitcoin and Ethereum. He said:
At the bottom, a typically impervious strong hand can be forced to sell because of uneconomical arrangements festering in their trading books. The LFG is such a seller.
To puke 80,000 physical Bitcoin is quite a feat. After contemplating the nature in which these Bitcoins were sold, I am even more confident that the $25,000 – $27,000 zone for Bitcoin is this cycle’s bottom.