Bitcoin (BTC) is delivering striking similarities to its last bear market, but the recent bottom may be its last, research says.
In a tweet on Oct. 31, popular trading account Stockmoney Lizards furthered the bull case for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin “repeats itself” in 2022
The past few days have seen talk of Bitcoin encountering a “double top,” with two spikes over $21,000.
The implication is bearish: Declining volume suggests that bulls will not be able to flip the level to support, and many expect fresh macro lows to come next.
New analysis offers an alternative, more optimistic, perspective. For Stockmoney Lizards, the similarities between 2022 and 2018 are hard to ignore.
“Bitcoin repeats itself,” they summarized alongside a comparative BTC/USD chart.
That chart compares what happened after Bitcoin hit its 2017 all-time high of $20,000 and 2021 all-time high of $69,000.
After a year-long bear market, BTC/USD approached macro lows in a similar fashion in both 2018 and 2022, the chart suggests.
As such, the June trip to $17,600 and the lows in the first half of October may, in fact, have been a “double bottom” similar to Q4 2018 and the first half of 2019.
Should that turn out to be true, upside is the logical next step and Bitcoin should avoid a further capitulation event.
NVT Signal takes bets on “big green candle”
Equally positive news comes from Bitcoin’s NVT Signal, which one trader and analyst is reading as a cue for a “big move” to hit the charts.
Related: BTC price sees ‘double top’ before FOMC — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
A derivative of the network-value-to-transactions (NVT) ratio, the NVT Signal is about to repeat behavior that has sparked considerable BTC price appreciation in years past.
“NVT-Signal predicts that a big move for $BTC is coming,” the trader explained alongside a chart.
“When NVT signal crosses NVT ratio and the NVT signal was before, the price of $BTC has increased ~450% on average in the last 3 years. I expect that we will see a big green candle very soon.”
The NVT has not always led to successful interpretations. At the end of 2021, a separate iteration flashed “oversold” despite BTC/USD going on to spend a year losing, not gaining, in U.S. dollar terms.
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